When is it worth trying out football correct score predictions
The answer to this question can be different every time. In general, it is difficult to make serious money in the long run from correct score predictions. They are more of an occasional bet for entertainment, where a successful pick can give you a very nice return. In many cases, these are matches that are more interesting to watch, involve your favourite team, or simply give you a strong feeling about how the game might finish.
It is important to point out, however, that correct score bets are among the markets with the highest odds offered by bookmakers. The reason is simple: you are not only trying to predict the winner, but also the exact number of goals scored by both teams. That is why, when looking through our football predictions, we prefer to treat correct score as an additional market rather than the basis of an entire betting strategy.
What Odds Can You Get on Correct Score Predictions?
A lot depends on the actual score you are predicting and the type of match. If you have a fixture such as Atletico Madrid vs Getafe and expect a tight game with few chances, scores such as 0-0, 1-0 or 1-1 will usually have lower odds than less common outcomes such as 3-2 or 4-1. The reason is straightforward – the bookmaker is also taking into account the probability of a low-scoring match.
This is where football statistics can be particularly useful. Goals scored and conceded can help narrow down the range of realistic scores instead of choosing one at random. If two teams regularly play matches with only one or two goals, there is little reason to start by looking at 4-2 or 3-3.
If, however, you are predicting a less likely outcome – Manchester City drawing 1-1 at home against a much weaker opponent, for example, or Real Madrid losing 0-1 at the Bernabeu – the odds can be considerably higher. Some correct score prices can easily reach 15.00, 20.00, 30.00 or more.
That is exactly what makes this market attractive, but also so difficult. High odds are not a gift from the bookmaker – they reflect how unlikely that exact result is considered to be.
Why Is a Correct Score Bet So Difficult to Predict?
Having a good feel for football predictions is difficult enough. Predicting exact scores consistently is another level altogether. It is no longer enough to decide which team is stronger or whether you expect goals. For one exact result to happen, many different parts of the match need to develop in a very particular way. A penalty, a red card, a missed one-on-one or a goal in stoppage time can turn a good reading of the game into a losing correct score prediction.
Imagine it like this. You are standing on a football pitch with a ball in front of you, as if you were preparing to take a free kick. In front of you are eight people holding footballs – seven white and one black.
At one point, all eight throw their balls into the air and you have to shoot and hit the black one. Your chances of hitting one of the balls may not be that small. Hitting the exact one you picked beforehand is a much harder task.
There are far more than eight possible scorelines in a football match. That is why you can be completely right about one team winning and about the game having relatively few goals, yet your 2-0 prediction can still lose because the match finishes 1-0 or 2-1.
When Does It Actually Make Sense to Try a Correct Score Bet?
You can always try one simply because you have a strong feeling about a particular match, but there are situations where the reasoning behind a correct score prediction can be slightly stronger.
A Second Leg or Knockout Match with a Clear Scenario
That does not mean 6-1 was an easy score to predict. The point is that in matches like this we at least know exactly what both teams need to do, which can help eliminate some of the possible scenarios.
This is one of the more interesting situations. In the second leg of a knockout tie, we already know the result of the first match and what each team needs to do to progress.
If one side is protecting a 2-0 lead, for example, it does not necessarily need to chase another three goals in the return leg. It may play more cautiously, while the opponent is the team that has to take risks.
A good historical example is the famous Barcelona vs PSG match in 2017. PSG had won the first leg 4-0, so the situation before the return match was perfectly clear – Barcelona needed an extraordinary win. The match eventually finished 6-1.
A Derby with a Recurring Type of Result
There are matches between local rivals with a long history where current form can sometimes become less important. The teams know each other extremely well, neither wants to lose the derby, and that can influence the way the match is played.
The Madrid derby between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid is a good example. Over the years we have seen tight 0-0 and 1-0 matches as well as much more open games, but tension and caution have been obvious in many of these meetings.
If you expect that type of derby to be tight again, instead of choosing one random score you might narrow the possibilities to 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 or 1-1.
Past results alone are obviously not a reason to place a bet. They can simply show whether there is a recurring pattern that also makes sense for the current match.
Two Low-performing Teams Whose Behavior is Obvious
These matches can be derbies, but they do not have to be. If you have two teams that play cautiously and rarely create a large number of chances, the range of possible scores naturally becomes smaller.
If you expect Under 2.5 Goals, the most logical scorelines are 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 and 0-2. If the two sides are fairly evenly matched, the last two may also look less likely, narrowing your options even further.
This is one situation where a correct score prediction has slightly more logic behind it than trying to guess the result of a game that could easily produce five or six goals.
How to Narrow the Choice Down to a Few Correct Scores
One of the biggest mistakes is deciding first that “this match will finish 2-1” and then looking for reasons to justify it. It makes more sense to start by thinking about how you expect the match to develop.
If you expect a tight game, your range might be 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 or 1-1. If there is a strong favourite but you are not expecting a heavy win, 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 might make more sense.
If you think both teams will create plenty of chances and the match will be open, you can start considering results such as 2-1, 2-2 or 3-1.
This way, instead of guessing between dozens of possible scores, you first decide what kind of match you expect and only then choose the exact result.
Correct Score or Another Betting Market?
You do not always have to end up betting on the correct score. Sometimes your reading of the match may be right, but there is not enough reason to decide whether the final result will be exactly 1-3 or 2-2. In that situation, Over/Under 2.5 Goals may be the more sensible option.
Another alternative is Half Time/Full Time (HT/FT). The odds can still be relatively high, but you do not need to predict the exact number of goals. Instead, you are predicting the result at half time and the final outcome of the match.
For example, you might expect the favourite to start slowly but eventually win. Instead of deciding whether the final score will be exactly 2-1 or 3-1, Draw/Home could reflect your idea of how the match will develop more accurately.
More Tips from Betinum
We recommend keeping track of the situations in which your correct score predictions tend to work best. For some people it might be derbies, for others matches involving a team they watch every week, while others may prefer major international tournaments.
There is another thing worth keeping in mind. If you regularly back five or six different correct scores in the same match, at some point you start losing much of the advantage of the high odds. It is usually better to have a specific idea and a limited number of possible outcomes.
From our own experience, major international tournaments can sometimes produce interesting situations for this market, particularly once the knockout rounds begin and the result of the match has a very specific meaning for both teams.
The most important thing is not to turn correct score betting into a market where you risk a large part of your bankroll. The high odds are attractive, but they come with a much lower probability of getting the prediction right.
And the main rule remains the same – always bet with money you can afford to lose.
