Why the January transfer window no longer brings the same thrill?

More and more often, the January transfer window leaves a sense of disappointment. Looking back, however, it is easy to recall years when the final day of the transfer window delivered genuine drama.

In 2008, for example, Andrey Arshavin arrived in snow-covered London to sign for Arsenal, but severe weather conditions forced the deadline to be extended by 24 hours.

In 2013, West Bromwich striker Peter Odemwingie got into his car and drove nearly 120 miles from Birmingham to London in the hope of completing a last-minute move to Queens Park Rangers — an attempt that ultimately failed.

The most memorable January deadline, however, remains 2011, when Liverpool completed two blockbuster deals — signing Andy Carroll from Newcastle and Luis Suárez from Ajax, moves that significantly affected the balance of power in the Premier League.

After those years, the window continued to have its moments, but the final day itself has increasingly lacked tension. The most recent January transfer deadline in the Premier League turned out to be the quietest in the league’s history — with just 7 deals completed.

By comparison, 13 transfers were finalized in 2024, 16 in 2023, and 14 in 2022. The trend clearly shows that activity at the end of January is gradually declining.

Interestingly, drama around deadline day has never been as pronounced in other major leagues either. English football may simply have conditioned us, for a long time, to expect more chaos and surprises.

We are Betinum gathered all important and interesting news and analysed it for you. Learn what to expect in the second half of the season below:

Big clubs and January transfers

In recent years, only one deal truly stands out at the end of the January window — the transfer of Enzo Fernández.

The Argentine midfielder arrived after the 2022 World Cup, where he was named Best Young Player, and just weeks later joined Chelsea for £106.8 million, which at the time was a record fee for British football.

Chelsea’s spending defined the entire window. Total Premier League expenditure reached £815 million, of which £284.1 million was spent by the London club alone. This accounted for 34.86% of all spending in the league.

These expenses were the result of delayed investment following the club’s ownership change the previous summer and became an outlier, especially compared to the post-pandemic years.

The Fernández transfer itself dragged on until the final minutes of the deadline and was a classic saga with multiple twists, finalized literally in the last seconds.

The closest equivalent this season was the potential transfer of Dwight McNeil from Everton to Crystal Palace — a deal that did not even materialize.

More statistics

As a rule, big clubs rarely spend heavily in January unless there is a specific and urgent need. Arsenal and Liverpool have not signed new players in the winter window since 2023.

In 2025, Chelsea invested just £13.5 million, while Manchester United spent £27.5 million — figures far below the scale of previous years.

Manchester City is one of the few exceptions. In 2025, Pep Guardiola spent a total of £188 million on Nico González, Omar Marmoush, Abdukodir Khusanov, and Vitor Reis.

In the current winter window, the club invested another £84 million, this time in proven Premier League players — Antoine Semenyo and Marc Guéhi.

To find the last truly “big” January window for the traditional top six clubs, we have to go back to 2018. That year, Arsenal signed Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang on deadline day, while Liverpool completed the transfer of Virgil van Dijk.

Total Premier League spending reached £500 million, with £322 million of that coming from the top six clubs. Arsenal led the way with £86 million, representing 26.71% of the big clubs’ total spending.

For comparison, in the 2023 January window, Chelsea alone accounted for 73.39% of the top six’s total spending of £387.1 million.

How these numbers affect football predictions after the January window

Data from recent Premier League seasons clearly shows that the January transfer window is increasingly less likely to alter the real balance of power. On the final deadline day, just 7 deals were completed — the lowest figure in the league’s history. By comparison, there were 13 deals in 2024, 16 in 2023, and 14 in 2022. This means that in most seasons, over 75% of teams enter the second half of the campaign without structural squad changes.

For those of you who follow Betinum football predictions, this is highly significant. When there are no mass transfers, tactical patterns, playing styles, and problems from the first half of the season tend to persist. Historically, teams without January signings rarely show sharp changes in form unless affected by injuries or suspensions.

What does this mean?

Even when large sums are spent, they are spent by very few teams. In the winter of 2023, total Premier League spending reached £815 million, but Chelsea alone spent £284.1 million, accounting for 34.86% of all funds. In real terms, one team influenced the league — not the market as a whole.

Despite this record spending, Chelsea finished the season outside the Champions League qualification places — a clear example that heavy spending does not automatically lead to changes in league position.

A similar pattern can be observed with Manchester City. In 2025, the club invested £188 million in the January window, followed by another £84 million the following season. These expenditures improved squad depth but did not lead to a sharp change in points per game compared to the first half of the season. The average points per match remained within a similar range, indicating a stabilizing rather than revolutionary effect.

Are there exceptions?

The contrast appears in seasons when more teams invest in transfers. In 2018, total January spending in the Premier League was around £500 million, with £322 million invested by the top six clubs. That year, Arsenal spent £86 million (26.71% of the big six’s spending), while Liverpool completed the signing of Virgil van Dijk. That season saw a genuine shift in the table and a long-term impact on results in subsequent campaigns.

The opposite picture is seen in seasons with minimal activity. In 2023–2024, several top clubs, including Liverpool and Arsenal, made no significant January signings, while spending by the big six was almost entirely concentrated at Chelsea (73.39% of £387.1 million). As a result, changes in the league table after January were minimal, and trends from the first half of the season were largely preserved.

Conclusions:

After January, stronger indicators than transfers are form over the last 5–6 matches, squad depth, accumulated minutes played by key players, and specific absences. When the transfer market is quiet or heavily concentrated, value is often found in betting against an “expected turnaround” that statistically rarely occurs.

In other words, the numbers from the January transfer window show that January increasingly brings fewer systemic changes and more often reinforces existing trends. And for mathematical football predictions, stability is more valuable than sensation.