Ludogorets – Olympiacos, Prediction

Ludogorets

• Ludogorets managed to record a prestigious 1-1 draw in the first match. They defended relatively well, but were still outplayed;
• They were also a little lucky with their goal, without belittling Despodov’s good free kick, but Tzolakis’ position was partly to blame;
• Overall, they recorded 0.69 xG and had only one goal attempt from Olympiacos’ penalty area;
• In the last calendar year Ludogorets played with 3 teams at a similar level to that of Olympiacos, namely LASK Linz, Antwerp and Midtjylland;
• Of these matches, they conceded 7 goals from LASK Linz (2 matches), 5 against Antwerp (2 matches) and 1 goal from Midtjylland (1 match);
• Looking at the Euroclub index we see that Olympiacos ranks 45th among the teams in Europe, LASK Linz in 105th, Antwerp in 133rd and Midtjylland in 101st;
• Tottenham also beat them twice with their B team.

Olympiacos

• In the last calendar year, the Greeks played only against higher-ranking opponents than them. In the group stage of the Champions League, they faced Man City, Porto, and Marseille, and in the Europa League against PSV and Arsenal.
• In the last round of the Champions League qualifiers, they met Neftchi Baku and won 2-0 overall. This result would probably have been greater if Madi Camara had not been sent off early in the first match.
• As I mentioned earlier, I think that Olympiacos was much better than the result in the last round suggests and still should have a significant advantage here, even though they play far from home.
• Olympiacos has never lost a Champions League qualifier under Pedro Martins (11 games, 8 wins and 3 draws). Most of these opponents were on a similar level with Ludogorets (Plzen, Istanbul BB, Krasnodar, Omonia Nicosia).

Olympiacos have been in a similar even harder position before against a stronger opponent and have overcome it, so we have a little more confidence in them and we think they will continue in the next round. Prediction – Olympiacos to qualify at 1.70.