How difficult is it to beat the betting markets?
Numerous studies by Joseph Buchdal on the subject show that an average of 1 in 1,000 bettors manages to win after good and bad luck equal, ie over 1,000 bets.
This shows how difficult it is to actually beat the odds and margin offered by bookmakers.
According to the types of bookmakers (answers)
- Soft or the so-called. European bookmakers provide us with less efficient odds, somewhat deliberately to attract new customers. They are correspondingly easier for the player to win, but it is more difficult to keep the account of the players active who manage to do that.
- Sharp bookmakers like Pinnacle give us much more efficient odds and are much harder to win, although the margin they add to the odds is much lower.
Beating the bookmaker is a very difficult. They have the best data analyzers with access to the best software models and the most data. They have a margin on their side that protects them from mistakes. And most of them (soft ones) can just stop you from betting if you’re better than them.
According to the types of Limits (answers)
- High limitsThe higher the betting limits on a given market, the more effective the odds offered by the bookmaker. The more participants there are, the more effective it is.
- Low limitsAccordingly, the lower they are, the less efficient the market is. I advise beginners to focus first on the markets with lower limits, I mean soft bookmakers and smaller championships, and then move on to more liquid markets.
This is because when you open bets on an event, usually days in advance, the bookmaker is less confident in the odds created by analysts and software and gives professionals the right to take advantage of minor errors and thus adjust the odds to perfect. . After each new news on the market, bookmakers make adjustments, just as Bitcoin makes adjustments after each news and the price goes down or up, ie the odds for the respective bets become more accurate.
The closer we are to the start of the event, the more efficient, that is, the odds are accurate. For this reason that the Closing Line, ie the odds just before the start of an event are the most accurate and at the same time play the role of an indicator of how good the bettors are by comparing the odds they have caught with the closing ones.
How can we take advantage of market inefficiencies?
The use of basic resources such as real-time odds software, multiple betting accounts, fast sources of information, etc. can help find inefficient odds.
There are two things we can take advantage of.
- The odds in different bookmakers differ, which means that there is no full efficiency everywhere, because this ensures that somewhere the price is more incorrect than elsewhere, that is, to have multiple accounts in different bookmakers and always choose the highest odds is of utmost importance.
2. The odds are dynamic. The market is the effect of new information, injuries to players, lineups, weather, mood in the locker room or something else that can affect the true probabilities of events. When certain information enters the market, we must place our bets as quickly as possible in order to take advantage of the current inefficiency of the market. These windows of opportunity are the cases in which professionals take advantage and earn.
If we compare the Sports Betting market with the financial one, for example, we can say that it is much less efficient. Sometimes the crowd is wise, sometimes it is guided by nothing more than its animal instincts, which means that there are periods of inefficiency in both markets.
In addition to the skills, experience and tools I mentioned to you earlier, gamblers must go through psychological barriers and difficulties such as bias in order to be profitable in the long run. Tippers who sell their services also appear here.
It is important to take a good look at all the data provided by a tipster, especially his statistics, and only after you try for free from his bets, then it is good to make a purchase.
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