The bias in sports betting
Bias / prejudices attack us throughout life in every aspect, leading us to make bad decisions. In most cases, they affect our subconscious. We do not do these biases on purpose, even in most cases we are not even aware of them.
The better we research and get to know them, the better decisions we will make.
Understanding gambling bias will increase many times the expected value you find and the chance of success in the long run.
1. Bias towards short-term results
Many times I wrongly focus on a series of winnings,
or a series of losses
and I make wrong decisions because they reflect short periods. It would be much better to look at the whole picture, not the small details, because that way you will have a better view of things.
In the beginning, when I lost BGN 50-100 a day, I felt irritated. Then, at a loss of BGN 400-500 per day, I felt irritated. After that, at a loss of BGN 1,000 a day, I even felt irritated.
The bottom line is that in order to continue to grow, we need to take more risks and be aware that there will be days when we will lose more money, but in order to be profitable in the long run and grow progressively, we need to accept this more. in the beginning.
2. Bias to Early Success
Many times you have heard the phrase “beginner’s luck”. People think it’s good luck, but in over 90% of cases it’s very bad luck, because after winning a bigger amount, these so-called lucky people return the money with interest or 10, because they believed they were. ” good ”and that it is easy to win.
3. Bias to Recent Results (Availability Deviation)
Bias against haste is when we place more importance on recent events when making decisions. This is a mental time saver based on the idea that if something can be easily remembered, it must be important.
Examples:
- You make the right decision not to bet a certain bet, but he wins. You feel missed benefits. And next time in the same situation you will make the bet, even though it is bad.
- You make a bad bet decision and he wins and the next time you make the same bad decision again.
- An example of such bias is when Leicester won the Premier League and the following year people bet on Burnley, Hull City and Middlesbrough to win, who were outsiders because of their bias towards last year.
4. The delusion of the gambler
A well-known bias describing the tendency to look for models in past events that have no predictive value.
The example with roulette, where you see the last 10 that they are red and we say that the next one is black, because they can’t always be red, but every spin is random for itself.
Real Madrid are losing 5 games in a row and many people think they can’t get 6 and bet, but the fact that they lost 5 in a row is not an indication that they have to win the 6th.
It’s the same with a recent winning streak. This does not mean that you have become better, but simply a product of variation. Watch your overall historical success, ie. success and judge by it. If it goes up, then you are on the right track.
5. Deviation in the result
The deviation in the result is a tendency to judge the decision by its result, and not by the quality of the choice at the time it is made.
When a bet loses, we tend to view it as a bad bet, but when it wins, we tend to view it as a good bet. The quality of the bet is based on the selection process, not the result. Individual results are just random luck.
It’s worth keeping a close eye on individual results to see if there’s anything valuable to learn, but never think a bet is bad just because it lost (or a bet is good just because it won).
An extreme example here is if you take a odds of 1.5 when tossing a coin and win. Yes, you won, but it was still a bad bet. If you took a odds of 2.5 when tossing a coin, but lost, this is still a good bet and you should make this bet as often as possible, regardless of the short-term result.
So it is clear that a good betting decision remains a good decision, regardless of the outcome.
The analysis of the results should be done on large samples, not on individual events. In the long run, the same good bet you lost today will be the same bet that brings you a good win in the future.
6. Bias to confirmationе
We all rely on our feelings and beliefs when we bet on Sports. After all, they are what drives our betting decisions. Here’s a few examples.
A match between Liverpool and Manchester City is forthcoming. We believe that we will win another match with a high score, as the two previous matches this season had a combined 12 goals (5-0 and 4-3).
This is the beginning of the World Cup and we confidently predict that France will win it, as it has the largest selection of quality players.
The Spurs are facing West Brom and we believe that the Spurs are the excellent team and will have no problem covering the -1.5 Asian handicap.
All of these are clear examples of how our views can lead to somewhat obvious predictions and expectations.
Things are not always so black and white, but we must believe in our views when we have strong feelings for them.
Conversely, we must be prepared to change our minds when necessary.
It is easy to be so attached to our beliefs that we never allow anything to change them. As a result, when we do our research and analysis, we tend to focus only on the information and data that support our opinion. We ignore anything that might suggest that it may be wrong. This trend is known as confirmation bias.
This can be problematic for football bettors. Part of the problem is that most gamblers don’t even realize that this particular bias exists. Like most cognitive biases, affirmative biases primarily affect our subconscious.
However, it is not always easy to recognize that this is changing us. We instinctively pay attention to everything that strengthens our existing beliefs, while ignoring everything that challenges them. We do not do this on purpose; in fact, most of the time we don’t even realize we’re doing it.
7. Gang effect
The gang effect is a subconscious phenomenon in which people do something important because other people do it.
One of the best examples of the Bandwagon effect was when Connor McGregor entered the boxing ring with Floyd Mayweather.
You might think that the chances of a ZERO professional boxing fighter against probably the greatest boxer of all time would be much higher than 4/1 (5.00), but this is where you are wrong.
Bookmakers flocked to bookmakers to bet on McGregor (+ 90% of Vegas bets) in the belief that Mayweather was too old and that Connor would be able to knock him out, as he had done to so many opponents in the Octagon.
This effect is fueled by both Connor and Floyd, two of the most influential names on social media, along with countless other media outlets who insist the Irishman actually had a chance against undefeated Mayweather 49-0.
The race turned out to be a walk in the park for the undefeated Mayweather, who was seen smiling at Connor during the battle when the Irishman made his best shots. Deep down, both fighters knew the outcome of the battle. They just tried to sell the battle and we can’t blame them for that.
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