The best strategy for managing the bank
If we are entitled to only 2 tips on how to win from sports bets, they would certainly be to learn the concept of value bets and learn to manage your bank properly.
To be a successful player in the long run, one of the two most important things is to learn to manage your bank properly. In today’s article we will talk to you on the topic of which bank management strategy to use.
In our work we have met many times gamblers who have a unique flair for finding valuable bets, but due to their mismanagement of money, they lose a lot.
The truth is that every successful bettor has many bad times, but with the right strategy, it’s just part of the game.
From the experience we have, we have noticed that the two biggest dangers faced by players are the pursuit of losses and overconfidence after a victory. This prevents them from winning in the long run.
Now we will share with you the 4 best strategies for managing the bank in sports betting and finally we will give you our opinion on which one to choose.
Fixed bet (Amount of bet = Fixed amount)
A fixed bet will mean that you bet the same amount every time, regardless of the movement of your bank. For example, you have a bank of 1,000 € and you place 20 € on each bet.
Many professional bettors use this strategy for the reason that it is easy to analyze the bets afterwards, and in particular the expected return and the actual return. No thinking is required and decisions are made faster. Reduces the likelihood of a limit by soft bookmakers due to the fact that different amounts signal a strategy used by the player, be it arbitration or otherwise.
A betting strategy that fails to make a profit on an equal bet will not win on any other betting plan – including Kelly. Therefore, first make sure that your method is profitable (ie identifies valuable bets) before you start optimizing your approach to bankroll management.
Percentage betting
Percentage betting means playing the same percentage of the current pot each time. That is, if you have a bank with 1,000 € and the percentage you have chosen for your bets is 2%, this will mean a 20 € bet. If after 5 bets, your bank is 1,100 €, 2% is already 22 €.
The advantages of this strategy are lower losses in bad periods, because you will reduce your bet proportionally and so there is no chance of never going bankrupt, as well as faster growth, because your bet is constantly increasing when the bank rises. The disadvantages are that it is more difficult to calculate, especially when you have more active bets, also the amounts are not fixed and will increase the chance of a limit and the biggest disadvantage is the slow recovery in a bad period, because if you fall to 800 €, 2% will be 16 €, while with a fixed bet, you will have 20 € and you will kill faster.
The Kelly Criterion Strategy
We will make a separate video on the topic of Kelly’s Criterion, but we will briefly explain that this is a strategy in which you bet more when your advantage is greater and your chances of winning are higher, but you bet less when the advantage you have less and your chance of winning is less.
It takes into account your current bank and the value of the specific bet.
Because the basic version of Kelly is too aggressive, partial betting is most often used, for example 25% of Kelly.
Kelly is theoretically the optimal version of interest rate betting in terms of maximizing the bank’s growth efficiency.
Its disadvantages are that it is designed for completely rational people, and most human beings are not. Another disadvantage is that in order to use it you must be able to very well consider the true probability of events, while this is a very complex process. And the third is that markets are moving fast, so sometimes you just have to make a quick bet and get it over with. In this case, you probably won’t be able to calculate Kelly’s perfect bet, but you’ll have to conform to your intuition. I think it’s practical to get used to calculating Kelly’s bets on the go, maybe based on Kelly or some of the other strategies.
Unit impact
Your bank is growing or declining in constant value.
Amount of the bet = (Constant percentage of profit x2) / Odds
Amount of bet = (target profit of each bet x2) / 1.9 = 210 €
This strategy allows us to win equally against different odds.
In fixed bets, if we find a value in a high odds, we will risk too high a% for a small chance of winning, while here we risk as much as we want to win. In the same way, with odds lower than 1.50, we increase the stakes a bit to have a normal profit, as the odds are higher, but all our bets are very close to each other.
This strategy is compared to the Unit Win and Unit Loss strategies and gives the best results from the simulations.
The strategy is very close to Kelly’s proportional betting and method. Numerous studies have shown that it is a very good alternative to Kelly, especially if you can not perfectly consider your advantage.
Also, from a psychological point of view, the single impact strategy is a good method for any bettor or tipster, as the impact of each bet on the bank is the same, as the difference between profit and loss of a bet is the same.
Other strategies
There are many other betting strategies that are too risky and no professional gambler uses them, so if you want to win, forget about them. The Martingale and Fibonacci strategies are part of them.
We’ve made a video on the subject of Martingale, so if you’re interested in what we think, you can check it out. We only did it because a lot of people think they’re going to make money using it, and Fibonacci is an equally risky strategy that doesn’t deserve video because it’s not as popular.
Which strategy to use?
Let’s first share that if you use the services of a tipster, then you must comply with its management of the bank, hoping that the gambler understands the matter well. It is good to look at how it performs on different bets if it does not use the fixed bet strategy, as well as on the different odds, of course all this if there are a large enough number of bets (over 600 at least).
If by increasing the betting unit / percentage, he improves his profitability and by reducing the coefficient, increases his success, then he appreciates the advantage well and you can trust him, but if increasing the betting percentage / unit does not do better , then you can play a fixed bet on his predictions.
If you make your own bets and you are a beginner, then certainly the best strategy for you is a fixed bet so that you can quickly and easily analyze your results. If the advantage you find is 10%, then a return of over 6% at equal bet levels will automatically mean that you are able to find value and you are on the right track. I say over 6%, because in the odds you play there is an added margin of about 3-4%, depending on the bookmaker and you have to subtract it.
Once you are sure that you are able to find value, our recommendation is to play your bets from 0.5% to 3% of the bank, depending on the odds and the advantage. For example, at odds of 2.00 and the usual advantage you find, for example 5%, you play 1.5% of your bank. At odds of 3.00, if your advantage is the same, you play 1%, but if it is greater, for example 8%, you can play 1.5% again.
And take these percentages in proportion to your bank, but their renewal should be when the bank moves by 10% – 20% in the direction (up or down).
For example, if your bank is 1,000 € and you fall to 800 €, this is 20% and it is time to renew your bet, ie 1% will now be equal not to 10 €, but to 8 €.
BUT, if you play in European bookmakers, always round the amount, 8 € or 16 €, it is not a good idea because you are signaling a strategy, so the closer is 10 €, which means that you will continue with 1% = 10 €, but with more big drop, then you will reduce to 5 €. If you have a bank with more than BGN 5,000, then a 10% drop will be 500 € and it is a good idea to make 1% = 45 €, 2% = 90 €.
This strategy for the management of the bank is something in common of a fixed amount and proportional betting, but the experience gives us the best result. Adding the experience of estimating an advantage of 0.5% on a bet to 3%, taking into account the odds makes it optimal.
If we missed something, add it in the comments